Australia’s Property Market: A Tale of Contrasting Cities in 2024
Australia’s housing market in 2024 presents a complex picture of regional disparities, according to recent insights from SQM Research. With the year halfway through, the real estate sector has shown surprising turns in several cities, challenging earlier projections and highlighting the significant impact of both domestic and international influences.
Mav Rodriguez, in his article on SQM Research’s findings, underscores that while the national average of dwelling prices has climbed by 2.5%, the growth has not been uniform across all capitals. Perth, for instance, is on track to see a staggering 20% increase in housing prices by the end of the year, fueled by robust employment rates and government policies favorable to housing. In contrast, Darwin struggles with a 2% decline, reflecting persistent issues in local economic activities and property stock levels.
Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, attributes some of the market dynamics to external factors such as potential geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in migration, particularly affecting Sydney and Melbourne. “I am a believer that migration rates are currently slowing,” Christopher explains. “This slowdown is now visibly impacting the inner-city rental markets, suggesting a likely price decline in Sydney and Melbourne as the year unfolds.”
The unexpected upturns in Brisbane and Adelaide, where housing prices are anticipated to rise by 15% to 20% by year-end, further emphasize the unpredictability of real estate trends. Christopher notes, “Brisbane’s growth, in particular, has surpassed our initial forecasts, driven by its strengthening economy and relative housing affordability.”
However, the economic backdrop is mixed with caution, particularly around falling commodity prices which could decelerate Perth’s rapid growth. Similarly, despite strong beginnings, cities like Canberra have seen a slowdown, with prices dropping by 0.8%, closely aligning with SQM’s conservative forecasts.
In summary, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of significant divergence in Australia’s property market, reflecting the complex interplay of local conditions and broader economic forces. As Rodriguez aptly captures in his report, the real estate landscape remains a field of varied fortunes, where each city tells its own unique story of economic resilience and challenge.
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Melissa Fisher
Founder, Acuity Development Group & The Right Team